As 2013 comes to a close, efforts to revive growth in the world’s most influential economies are exerting competing pressures on the global economy. Perhaps not surprisingly, while Europe and the US will continue to play an important global role, developments in Asia will determine the worldwide outlook in 2014 and beyond.

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At the dawn of a new year, the world is in the midst of several epic transitions. Economic growth patterns, the geopolitical landscape, the social contract that binds people together, and our planet’s ecosystem are all undergoing radical, simultaneous transformations, generating anxiety and, in many places, turmoil.

The biggest innovation in energy so far this century has been the development of shale gas and the closely associated resource known as “tight oil.” Indeed, the emergence of shale gas and tight oil in the US demonstrates, once again, how innovation can change the balance of global economic and political power.

Concern about economic inequality is in the air almost everywhere. What should matter is not inequality per se, but rather whether citizens have a genuine opportunity to become rich, or at least become substantially better off.

The global economy in 2013 remained suspended between the poles of hope and uncertainty. While recovery gained momentum, particularly in some advanced economies, the world economy is not yet flying on all engines – and is likely to remain underpowered next year as well.

Globalization has become a familiar enough word, the meaning of which has been discussed by others before me during this conference. Let me nonetheless outline briefly what I understand by the term. I shall then go on to consider what has caused it.

The US Congress has now carelessly blocked a long-awaited reform of the IMF, which would be bad enough if it were an isolated episode. But this was just the latest in a series of self-inflicted blows since the turn of the century that have needlessly undermined America's claim to global leadership.

A lack of regional cooperation on managing water supplies is hindering efforts to restore the Aral Sea.